Új Pedagógiai Szemle

Previous Hungarian research indicates that downward educational mobility has become more prevalent among younger generations. However, both the Hungarian and the international literature remain limited with regard to the factors shaping the chances of downward educational mobility. This study draws on the 25–29-year-old subsamples of the Hungarian Youth Research (Magyar Ifjúság) 2016 and 2020 datasets, as well as on a pooled dataset created by combining the two waves. Downward educational mobility was examined by distinguishing three groups according to the father's educational attainment: fathers with a university degree, fathers with an upper secondary school certificate, and fathers with a vocational qualification. To identify the factors associated with downward educational mobility, binary logistic regression models were estimated using a range of potential independent variables, including gender, type of settlement, and the mother's educational attainment. Our findings show that the proportion of downwardly mobile young people remained relatively stable between the two survey waves (10.2% in 2016 and 9.2% in 2020). The vast majority of these transitions involved a one-level movement, most frequently originating from the group whose fathers held a university degree. In all models, the mother's educational attainment significantly influenced the chances of downward mobility; however, the relevant determinants differed across paternal educational groups. For example, in the subsample of respondents whose fathers had vocational qualifications, both parenthood and partnership status were significant predictors, whereas among those with fathers holding an upper secondary certificate or a university degree, disagreement with the parents' way of life weakened the pattern of educational reproduction. Finally, unlike upwardly mobile and educationally immobile young people, downwardly mobile respondents did not display a distinctive pattern regarding their intentions to pursue further education.

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